Composite War

              A declared war seems more plausible now than in any point in my life, aside from the days after September 11, 2001. You may disagree with me, but you’re reading this, so you get my opinion. In my more negative musings on this fear, I wonder what could spark this war and what would characterize the two sides. After today’s research, mostly accidental, I have a bleak fiction to share with everyone, in the hopes that this doesn’t happen.

              The Federalist Papers discuss many predictions about the fate of the nation. One of the fates they discuss is a civil war as the only way to reconcile dissent among the states. In order for a faction to form, a strong state will act as a primary aggressor who will pull neighbors into their fold by philosophical or economic means. In the Civil War, this character was played by South Carolina, and the economically similar southern states formed the Confederacy. This did not end the Union, but it did result in abolishing overt slavery, which the founding fathers were sure would happen eventually, believing in the better angels of American nature.

              In the current climate, an influential and economically important state has ignited the idea of splitting from the union: California. This state is responsible for ten percent of the population, two of the three busiest ports, and a third of the economy in the United States. Some of the people who have rallied around this idea have engaged the neighboring states with the idea of forming the Nation of Pacifica. Now, this is not a popular idea, leaving the US, but it is an idea that will gain momentum with the increase of the political divide in this country, which is the worst it has been since the Civil War.

              Listening to a TED Talk by Graham Allison on the way to work, I learned about the potential conflict between the US and China. He was articulate and stated facts that I had generally heard or considered before. What stood out in my mind about his informed narrative was that major historical conflicts are started by a third party. California seceding could easily be that catalyst that sparks the larger conflict between the two largest GDPs in the world.

              It would be logical for California, which has no army of its own, to align itself with China, who provides so many goods that drive innovation and technology and transport most of their goods in the US through California’s ports. Depending on the type of treaty California and China form will provide a blueprint and advertisement for other states and nations to take the side of the uprising.

              The response for the rest of the nation would be to align itself with countries that can oppose California’s secession and China’s support of their decision. Given the rise of populist movements across the world, it would be logical for the populist to form a league with the eastern United States. This could spark not one, but two, civil wars: one in North America and another in Europe.

              How would this World War 3 with two continental civil wars end? I have no idea, but I’d put my money on China winning. China has a vision and a drive that can no longer be found in the US. I share this nightmare on the scariest day of the year to invite you, the reader and world citizen, to consider the consequences of the current climate. An ending word of caution from the Federalist Papers; the writers expected that civil war would end the union. They were wrong the first time, but they are so astute that I don’t want to bet on them being wrong twice.